If the Orban Playbook holds, in the next few weeks, look for new Justice Department guidance under the foreign-agent law (FARA) regarding non-profits.
Based on this guidance, the Justice Department and Department of Homeland Security could then issue subpoenas to staff, donors, and vendors of their perceived enemy groups.
If they do, don’t worry, you’ll know, because they’ll publicly grandstand about it, spouting a lot of “viral” claims that will later prove to either be taken out of context or outright false (see: USAID).
At the same time, the Treasury Department will begin officially questioning the tax-exempt status of select non-profits, launching audits, assessing penalties, and stopping federal grants under standard risk-review rules. And the IRS may announce revocations or penalties framed as neutral enforcement.
The main thing to watch for is the “terrorist” designation, because any org Trump officially designates as a “terrorist” automatically loses its tax-exempt status. And they tried a dry run of this with the “Stop Cop City” protesters in Atlanta, but, as of now, the organization must be “foreign” to fit under Section 219 of the Immigration and Nationality Act. Hence the emphasis on Soros and China.
Here’s how the ACLU describes what they’ll try to do:
”Under the Antiterrorism and Effective Death Penalty Act of 1996 (“AEDPA”), the federal
government can impose severe sanctions on an organization that the Secretary of State
designates a “Foreign Terrorist Organization” (“FTO”). Any assets of the organization that are
held by U.S. financial institutions are frozen and its non-citizen members or representatives are
barred from entry into the United States. Moreover, U.S. and foreign financial institutions,
organizations, and individuals can be criminally prosecuted for knowingly providing “material
support,” broadly defined to include services, resources, or “expert advice or assistance,” to the
designated FTO. Judicial review of FTO designation is highly limited and deferential, and may
be based on secret information that the designated organization cannot see. Administrative
review is not available until two years after the designation.
”
Before making a designation official, the Secretary of State must send, at least 7 days before the designation, classified written notice to certain Congressional members (Republicans Mike Johnson, Jim Risch, Brian Mast, Chuck Grassley, Rick Crawford, and Tom Cotton (no help there), and Democrats Jeanne Shaheen, Gregory Meeks, and Mark Warner (might be worth a call to their offices!)).
They’re supposed to include the findings made under the statute and the factual basis for them in that notice, but . . . you know. Rules! After the 7‑day notice period, the designation must be published in the Federal Register. At that point it becomes effective. Cue: Sad Trombone.
Meanwhile, people like Ted Cruz, Marjorie Taylor Greene, and the Capital Research Group will float conspiracy theories connected to racketeering laws, foreign-agent rules, or financial-crime statutes.
You can definitely expect coordinated letters from oversight committees demanding records from named NGOs and funders, followed by agency notices that repeat the same claims (plus the right wing echo chamber boosting all of it).
I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a splashy racketeering filing (RICO) aimed at a funder or coalition, even if the case is weak. Because, you never know! (See: Greenpeace)
Some part of all this will become a viral story, amplified through the right wing echo chamber and corporate media.
I’d imagine we’ll see more accusations of mortgage fraud or teaching some sort of forbidden ideology to vulnerable children.
Next: Mobilizing the Quasi-Stasi
One great thing about complaint-driven enforcement is that it works the same way in TikTok Court as it does in Big Kid Court.
An accusation is enough to trigger consequences.
In Big Kid Court, once the government asks for records, targeted groups must hire counsel, produce documents, and in general just deal with a huge horrible strategic headache. The legal work and the stigma of accusation provide the chill, even if no actual violations are ever found.
Process becomes the punishment(see: SLAPP suits).
Same goes for the para-social hellscape. In TikTok Court, public complaint portals and calls for volunteer surveillance agents establish reporting loops of self-policing that erode freedom. And are just gross.
With fewer checks on misinformation now (hmmm!), online vigilantism is getting bot-boosted, so it’s that much easier to spook employers into firing or suspending workers accused of bad posts. Management is almost always going to move faster than courts, likely to punish first and deal with any legal or reputational fallout later. This makes de facto bans on “disloyal” speech and ominous threats about arresting people for posting through it raise the cost of saying the potential “wrong” thing.
(“But all opinions are mine!” he said as the guillotine fell).
So while Trump is consolidating the resources of the state to crush his perceived enemies, We the People are doing our part to create the climate of paranoia and fear in which authoritarians thrive.
Sigh.
Reminder: none of it has to actually “work” to work. The vibe is the point, for now. But the vibe leads to victory, or, as Breitbart said, “politics is downstream from culture.”
So, pro tip: Do not comply in advance.
In what now seems like a quaint little dust-up from the happy times, Washington Post reporter Ben Bagdikian told Katherine Graham, after the Nixon DOJ issued an injunction to stop them from printing the Pentagon Papers, “the only way to assert the right to publish is to publish.”
The only way to assert the right to free speech is to speak.
The only way to assert the right to protest is to protest.
You’re strong. You can do hard things. Do not comply in advance.
