We’re already seeing vague threats turn into direct FCC or SEC pressure on corporate media to silence Trump critics, as well as hand-waving about George Soros.
So if the rest of Orban Playbook holds, in the next few weeks we can look for new Justice Department guidance regarding non-profits under the foreign-agent law (FARA), and then, based on this guidance, DoJ and the Department of Homeland Security will start issuing subpoenas to staff, donors, and vendors of Trump’s perceived enemy groups.
They’ll do even more public grandstanding about it, spouting a lot of “viral” claims about civil society groups that will later prove to either be taken out of context or outright false (see: USAID).
At the same time, the Treasury Department will begin officially questioning the tax-exempt status of enemy non-profits, launching audits, assessing penalties, and stopping federal grants under standard risk-review rules. No proof needed, of course. Just process as punishment.
But the *main thing* civil society groups should watch for is any changes to how official “terrorist” designation works, because any org Trump officially designates as a “terrorist” automatically loses its tax-exempt status.
As of now, official “terrorist” organizations must be “foreign” to fit under Section 219 of the Immigration and Nationality Act.
But now it makes more sense why they’re emphasizing Soros and China so much.
Here’s how the ACLU describes what they’ll try to do, officially, but the short version of the good news is, this stuff takes time.
Before making a designation official, the Secretary of State must send, at least seven days before the designation, classified written notice to certain Congressional members (Republicans Mike Johnson, Jim Risch, Brian Mast, Chuck Grassley, Rick Crawford, and Tom Cotton (no help there), and Democrats Jeanne Shaheen, Gregory Meeks, and Mark Warner (might be worth a call to their offices!)).
They’re supposed to include the findings made under the statute and the factual basis for them in that notice, but . . . you know. Rules! Pfft!
After the seven‑day notice period, the designation must then be published in the Federal Register. At that point it becomes effective.
Cue: Sad Trombone.
Now, the bad news. UNOFFICIALLY, Trump can say “Antifa” equals “Terrorist” and his followers can take whatever hint from that they want.
Cue: Horst Wessel.
All the while, people like Ted Cruz, Marjorie Taylor Greene, and the Capital Research Group will float conspiracy theories connected to racketeering laws, foreign-agent rules, or financial-crime statutes to keep the vibe going.
You can definitely expect more coordinated letters from oversight committees and state attorneys general demanding records from named NGOs and funders, followed by agency notices that repeat the same claims (plus the right wing echo chamber boosting all of it).
I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a splashy racketeering filing (RICO) aimed at a funder or coalition, even if the case is weak.
Because, you never know! (See: Greenpeace)
Anyways, some part of all this will become a viral story, amplified through the right wing echo chamber and corporate media, so Comet Ping Pong 2.0 isn’t the most unlikely forecast.
But the most likely forecast is generalized fear and paranoia causing to people to act violently goofy.
Or more violently goofy, I guess.
*
Anyways, one great thing about complaint-driven enforcement is that it works the same way in TikTok Court as it does in Big Kid Court.
An accusation is enough to trigger consequences.
In Big Kid Court, once the government asks for records, targeted groups have to hire counsel, produce documents, and in general just deal with a huge horrible strategic headache.
The legal work and the stigma of accusation provide the chill, even if no actual violations are ever found.
Process becomes the punishment(see: SLAPP suits).
Same goes for the para-social hellscape. In TikTok Court, public complaint portals and calls for volunteer surveillance agents establish reporting loops of self-policing that erode freedom, are just gross, and can cause actual vigilante violence.
With fewer checks on misinformation now (hmmm!), online and offline vigilantism is getting bot-boosted, so it’s that much easier to spook employers into firing or suspending workers accused of bad posts.
Management is almost always going to punish first and deal with any legal or reputational fallout later. This makes de facto bans on “disloyal” speech and ominous threats about arresting people for posting through it raise the cost of saying the potential “wrong” thing and so EVEN SOUTH PARK has to pause and wonder if it’s worth it.
(“But ‘All opinions are mine!’” he said as the guillotine blade whooshed through the air).
So while Trump is consolidating the resources of the state to crush his perceived enemies, We the People are doing our part to create the climate of paranoia and fear in which authoritarians thrive.
None of the official stuff has to actually “work” to work. The vibe is the point, for now, because the vibe has led to all the victories up to this point, or, as Breitbart said, “politics is downstream from culture.”
What to do?
First, maybe don’t comply in advance?
In what now seems like a quaint little dust-up from the happy times, Washington Post reporter Ben Bagdikian told publisher Katherine Graham, after the Nixon DOJ issued an injunction to stop them from printing the Pentagon Papers, “the only way to assert the right to publish is to publish.”
So, same.
The only way to assert the right to free speech is to speak.
The only way to assert the right to protest is to protest.
You’re strong. You can do hard things. Do not comply in advance (and, if you’re planning on protesting during climate week, bring snacks and write a lawyer’s phone number on your arm). | 
