The Latest Intel on Trump’s War with Iran
A Special "Get Your War On" #InstrumIntel for Sunday, 3.1.26
It's been a lot these past couple days, so here's a What? So What? Now What?.
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The Global Politics of it All • The Trump Administration • Climate & Environmental Impact • AI & Tech • Culture & Media • What the Right is Reading • Strays
Sup chat this is Slouching Towards Bethlehem with your boy The Rough Beast, and it looks like today’s stream could be a big one, as some of you might’ve already seen there are rumors going around social media that the hour has come round at last, so we’re gonna get right into it
— well it’s dan (@danbe.bsky.social) February 28, 2026 at 6:51 PM
Global Politics
Headline: Military briefing: Iran’s new retaliation strategy
What?
On October 15, 2023, Iran launched a new missile retaliation strategy against Israel and U.S. allies in the Gulf, following recent strikes by the United States and Israel. The Islamic Republic is employing a strategy of consistent, smaller-scale attacks using short-range missiles and drones to stretch air defenses and target civilian infrastructure in countries like Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Iraq.
So What?
This shift in Iran's military tactics could lead to prolonged conflict, increasing regional instability and potentially drawing in more international actors. The strategy aims to deplete the missile defense systems of the U.S. and its allies, which could alter the balance of power and escalate tensions in the Middle East.
WTF?
The U.S. Naval HQ in Bahrain was reportedly hit by a Shahed-136 drone, described as a "toy airplane," highlighting the vulnerability of even well-defended military installations to low-tech attacks.
Now What?
Observers should monitor any legislative or diplomatic responses from the United States and its allies, as well as potential shifts in military strategy or defense spending. The situation may influence future arms control discussions or sanctions against Iran.
Headline: Thanks to President Trump, the hour of Iran’s freedom is at hand
What?
On February 28, 2026, Reza Pahlavi, a leader of the Iranian democratic opposition, wrote about the U.S. and Israeli military operation, Operation Epic Fury, which resulted in the death of Iran's leader, Ali Khamenei. President Donald Trump announced the strikes, emphasizing the threats posed by Iran, and declared that the Iranian people's freedom was imminent.
So What?
The military operation marks a significant shift in power dynamics in the Middle East, potentially leading to the dismantling of Iran's current regime and the establishment of a democratic government. This could transform Iran into a stabilizing force in the region, altering geopolitical alliances and economic opportunities.
Now What?
Watch for the implementation of the Iran Prosperity Project, a transition plan for Iran's recovery and stabilization. Key developments will include the drafting of a new constitution, a referendum, and subsequent free elections under international oversight. The international community's recognition of a legitimate transitional government will be crucial in the coming months.
The Trump Administration
(Reuters) - U.S. average retail gasoline prices are set to break above $3 a gallon on Monday for the first time in more than three months as the conflict between the United States and major oil producer Iran interrupts global oil flows, analysts said.
— Phil Stewart (@phildstewart) March 1, 2026
That's potentially a major…
Headline: Donald Trump Launches a War of “Epic Fury” on Iran
What?
On Saturday, President Donald Trump announced a military campaign against Iran, aiming to dismantle its theocratic regime and end its nuclear program. The operation, coordinated with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, has already targeted multiple Iranian cities and involved several other countries as Iran retaliated against U.S. and Israeli interests in the region.
So What?
This escalation risks destabilizing the Middle East further and has drawn international condemnation, raising questions about its legality under international law and the U.S. Constitution. The conflict could lead to significant regional and global security implications, with potential American casualties and a strained international diplomatic landscape.
WTF?
Despite ongoing diplomatic negotiations showing progress towards a peaceful resolution, Trump abruptly chose military action, echoing past U.S. interventions in the Middle East.
Now What?
Watch for developments from the United Nations emergency meeting and potential legislative actions by U.S. Congress regarding the war's authorization. The international community's response and any shifts in diplomatic efforts will be crucial in the coming days.
How the US-Israeli strikes on Iran unfolded and the aftermath, moment by moment | Cnn
What?
On February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched strikes on Iran, resulting in the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. The strikes have led to retaliatory attacks by Iran on US military bases and targets in Israel and the region, causing significant casualties and damage. The conflict has disrupted air travel and oil shipments, with widespread impacts across the Middle East.
So What?
The escalation between the United States, Israel, and Iran risks further destabilizing the Middle East, potentially leading to broader regional conflict. The strikes have already resulted in significant loss of life and infrastructure damage, affecting civilian populations and international relations.
WTF?
In Dubai, residents spent the night in underground parking garages, telling children the explosions were Ramadan fireworks to shield them from the reality of the conflict.
Now What?
Watch for potential diplomatic interventions or sanctions from international bodies aimed at de-escalating the conflict. The United Nations may convene emergency sessions to address the crisis, and further military actions from involved nations could alter the geopolitical landscape.
Headline: Trump's Dumb War Is a Test Democrats Must Not Fail
What?
On a late Friday night, the United States and Israel initiated a large-scale bombing campaign against Iran, as announced by former President Donald Trump in a video on Truth Social. Trump stated the operation aims for regime change, similar to the 2003 Iraq invasion, and has not been authorized by Congress.
So What?
This unauthorized military action risks escalating into a prolonged conflict, potentially costing American lives and destabilizing the region. It also challenges the Democratic Party to unify in opposition to what is described as an unjustified war, testing their political and moral responsibilities.
WTF?
Trump's statement included a bizarre claim about annihilating Iran's navy and razing their missile industry, despite no imminent threat being presented.
Now What?
Watch for a House vote on a bipartisan War Powers Resolution next week, which would require Trump to seek congressional approval to continue military actions against Iran. The resolution's passage is uncertain, and even if it passes, Trump is expected to veto it.
Headline: ‘I Have Agreed to Talk’
What?
On March 1, 2026, President Donald Trump announced that Iranian leaders want to resume negotiations following U.S. strikes that killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Trump stated he plans to engage in talks with Iran's new leadership, speaking from his Mar-a-Lago club.
So What?
The strikes on Iran and the potential for resumed negotiations could significantly alter U.S.-Iran relations and impact regional stability. The situation also poses risks of further military escalation and affects global oil markets.
WTF?
President Trump claimed that some Iranian negotiators are no longer alive due to the recent U.S. military actions.
Now What?
Watch for developments in U.S.-Iran negotiations and any legislative or military responses from Congress. The impact on oil prices and potential shifts in U.S. foreign policy strategy will be critical to monitor.
Trump says US casualties ‘could happen again’ as Israel and Iran launch new strikes | Cnn
What?
On Sunday, President Donald Trump acknowledged the possibility of further American casualties in the ongoing military operations against Iran, following the deaths of three American troops. The operations, which began with joint US-Israel attacks on Saturday, resulted in the death of Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and have led to retaliatory strikes by Iran.
So What?
The escalation of military actions between the United States, Israel, and Iran risks further destabilizing the Middle East, potentially leading to more casualties and impacting global oil supply through disrupted shipping lanes. The death of Iran's Supreme Leader has also created a power vacuum, with Tehran forming a transitional council to select a new leader.
Now What?
Watch for developments in the US Congress as the full Senate is set to be briefed on the situation in a sensitive compartmented information facility on Tuesday. Additionally, monitor any shifts in Iran's leadership and potential diplomatic negotiations that could arise from the ongoing conflict.
Headline: Here’s what’s going on at US bases in the Middle East amid Iran attacks
What?
On March 1, 2026, U.S. forces in the Middle East faced air raid sirens and explosions following a joint American-Israeli attack on Iran, which killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Iranian counterstrikes targeted U.S. bases in Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Jordan, Kuwait, and Iraq, resulting in casualties and damage to infrastructure.
So What?
The attacks highlight escalating tensions in the Middle East, risking further destabilization and potential broader conflict. The presence of U.S. naval power, including the USS Gerald R. Ford and USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike groups, underscores the strategic importance of the region and the potential for increased military engagement.
WTF?
The Crowne Plaza Manama, a five-star hotel in Bahrain, sustained damage from Iranian strikes, yet there was no loss of life reported.
Now What?
Watch for potential diplomatic responses from the United Nations and regional powers, as well as any shifts in U.S. military strategy in the Middle East. The situation may prompt discussions on international sanctions or peacekeeping efforts. Further developments could impact global oil markets and international relations.
Climate & Environment
Headline: $100 oil? Prolonged Hormuz closure could spark a 1970s-style energy shock
What?
On March 1, 2026, CNBC reported that oil markets are facing potential disruption due to U.S. strikes on Iran, which have raised concerns about the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical transit route for global oil. Vandana Hari, CEO of Vanda Insights, highlighted the risk of a full-scale military conflict between the U.S. and Iran, which could severely impact oil flows through the Middle East.
So What?
The potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz could lead to a significant spike in oil prices, possibly reaching triple digits, and create a scenario more severe than the 1970s oil embargo. This disruption could have widespread economic implications, affecting global oil and liquefied natural gas markets.
Now What?
Observers should monitor any military developments in the Gulf region and potential diplomatic efforts to de-escalate tensions. The U.S. and its allies may consider deploying military escorts to ensure the security of shipping lanes through the Strait of Hormuz.
Headline: Surviving on Trump's Dangerous Planet
What?
On October 2023, Bill McKibben reported on the U.S. and Israel's attack on Iran, resulting in the deaths of Iran's leader and eighty schoolgirls. The attack, lacking Congressional debate, is linked to Iran's vast oil and gas reserves, with oil executives expressing interest in stabilizing Iran's oil industry. Concurrently, Cuba faces energy shortages due to U.S. pressure, but is rapidly expanding its solar power capacity with Chinese support.
So What?
The U.S. attack on Iran may lead to increased oil prices, benefiting the oil industry, while Cuba's shift to solar energy highlights a move towards decentralized energy sources that are less vulnerable to geopolitical conflicts. This shift could undermine U.S. influence and demonstrate the resilience of renewable energy infrastructure.
WTF?
Despite criticizing green energy, Montana Republican Senator Tim Sheehy has installed rooftop solar and battery storage systems at his home.
Now What?
Watch for potential retaliatory cyberattacks from Iran on U.S. infrastructure and further developments in Cuba's solar energy expansion. Additionally, monitor legislative actions regarding renewable energy projects on U.S. public lands, as over 22 gigawatts of projects are currently blocked.
Headline: How Trump’s War with Iran Could Roil the Global Oil Market
What?
On Saturday, the United States and Israel launched a major aerial assault on Iran, targeting Iranian leadership and military infrastructure. In response, Iran attacked Israel and Gulf nations allied with the U.S., affecting American military installations. This conflict threatens to disrupt global oil and natural gas markets, as Iran and its Persian Gulf neighbors are major producers.
So What?
The conflict could significantly impact global oil prices and energy markets, as the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for oil shipments, faces potential closure. This disruption could lead to increased energy prices worldwide, affecting gasoline, electricity, and home heating costs.
WTF?
Iranian Revolutionary Guard broadcasts claimed the Strait of Hormuz was closed, despite some tankers still navigating the strait.
Now What?
Watch for developments in the U.S. military strategy to secure the Strait of Hormuz and potential retaliatory actions by Iran against neighboring oil infrastructure. Monitor China's response, as it is a major importer of Middle Eastern oil, and any diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the situation.
Headline: Three ships attacked near Strait of Hormuz as fears grow of oil price rises
What?
On October 22, 2023, at least three ships were attacked near the Strait of Hormuz as Iran launched strikes across the Middle East in response to an ongoing attack by the United States and Israel. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations Centre reported that two vessels were struck, and an unknown projectile exploded near a third, causing international shipping to nearly halt at the strait's entrance.
So What?
The attacks have led to a significant disruption in global oil distribution, with fears of rising oil prices as the Strait of Hormuz, which carries about 20% of the world's oil and gas, is effectively closed. This situation could lead to a substantial increase in oil prices if the strait remains shut for an extended period.
WTF?
The United States and Israel's strikes reportedly killed Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, prompting retaliatory strikes across several Middle Eastern countries.
Now What?
Watch for potential military interventions by the United States to protect shipping routes, which could stabilize oil prices if successful. Additionally, monitor the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries Plus group's response to the crisis, as they have agreed to increase output to mitigate price hikes.
Headline: First oil tanker attacked in the Strait of Hormuz according to Oman
What?
On Sunday morning, the first attack against a ship in the Strait of Hormuz occurred when an oil tanker named Skylight, flying the flag of the Republic of Palau, was targeted around five nautical miles north of Khasab Port, according to Oman's Maritime Security Centre. The incident follows the declaration from Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps that the Strait of Hormuz is closed to international navigation.
So What?
The attack has led to a significant disruption in ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, with major shipping companies like Maersk suspending operations and marine insurers halting coverage for voyages in the area. This has created extreme volatility in the global oil market, with analysts warning of potential spikes in oil prices.
Now What?
Watch for developments in the ongoing tensions between Iran and international stakeholders, particularly any formal announcements regarding the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The next OPEC+ meeting on April 5 will be crucial in assessing the impact on global oil supply and market conditions.
AI & Tech
Headline: B-2 Spirit Stealth Bombers Take Part in Night Strikes on Iran
What?
On March 1, 2026, four B-2A Spirit stealth bombers from the United States Air Force conducted night strikes on Iranian targets as part of Operation Epic Fury. The bombers flew a round-trip mission from the Continental United States (CONUS) and were supported by KC-46 tankers, with the mission reportedly targeting underground ballistic missile sites in Iran.
So What?
The strikes signify a significant escalation in military operations against Iran, potentially destabilizing the region further. The operation also resulted in casualties among U.S. service members, highlighting the risks involved in such military engagements.
WTF?
Iranian state media confirmed the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in the strikes, an event that could have profound implications for the country's political landscape.
Now What?
Watch for potential retaliatory actions from Iran and further military responses from the United States and its allies. The situation may lead to increased tensions and calls for diplomatic interventions to prevent further escalation.
Headline: U.S. Military Has Used Long-Range Kamikaze Drones In Combat For The First Time
What?
On February 28, 2026, the United States Central Command announced that the U.S. military used Low-cost Unmanned Combat Attack System (LUCAS) kamikaze drones in combat for the first time during Operation Epic Fury, targeting sites in Iran. These drones, modeled after the Iranian Shahed-136, were launched by Task Force Scorpion Strike, which was established to counter Iranian strategies.
So What?
This development signifies a strategic shift in U.S. military tactics, adopting and adapting Iranian drone technology for its operations, potentially altering the balance of power in the region and challenging existing air defense systems.
Now What?
Watch for potential legislative or military responses from Iran and its allies, as well as any international diplomatic reactions to the U.S.'s use of these drones. Further developments in drone technology and military strategy may also emerge as a result of this operation.
Headline: OpenAI CEO Sam Altman answers questions on new Pentagon deal: 'This technology is super important'
What?
On Saturday, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman defended a new agreement with the Department of War, allowing the deployment of OpenAI’s artificial intelligence models on its classified network. This comes after President Donald Trump ordered federal agencies to cut ties with Anthropic, citing national security concerns. Altman emphasized that the agreement aligns with OpenAI's principles against domestic mass surveillance and autonomous weapon systems.
So What?
This agreement marks a significant shift in the U.S. military's approach to artificial intelligence, potentially setting a precedent for future collaborations between tech companies and the government. It also intensifies the competitive landscape for AI companies seeking government contracts, as seen with the exclusion of Anthropic.
Now What?
Watch for potential legal challenges from Anthropic regarding its designation as a supply-chain risk, which could impact future government contracts for AI companies. Additionally, monitor any legislative or policy changes concerning AI use in military operations, especially regarding surveillance and autonomous weapons.
Headline: Trump moves to ban Anthropic from the US government
What?
On February 6, 2026, U.S. President Donald Trump announced that all federal agencies must cease using Anthropic's artificial intelligence tools, following a dispute over military applications of AI. The Department of Defense sought to change a deal with Anthropic to allow "all lawful use" of AI, which Anthropic opposed due to concerns over potential uses like autonomous weapons and mass surveillance.
So What?
This decision could disrupt existing military operations and collaborations involving AI, potentially affecting national security strategies and the role of civilian tech companies in defense. It also highlights tensions between government agencies and tech companies over ethical AI use.
Now What?
Watch for further negotiations between Anthropic and the U.S. government during the six-month phase-out period. Additionally, observe any legislative or regulatory actions that may arise from this dispute, particularly concerning AI use in military contexts.
Headline: "All Lawful Use": Much More Than You Wanted To Know
What?
On Friday, Secretary of War Pete Hegseth declared AI company Anthropic a “supply chain risk” due to its refusal to allow the Department of War to use their artificial intelligences for mass surveillance and autonomous weapons. Subsequently, an agreement-in-principle was reached between Hegseth and Sam Altman of OpenAI to fill the niche vacated by Anthropic, despite concerns over the potential use of OpenAI’s models for similar purposes.
So What?
This development raises significant concerns about the potential for mass surveillance and the deployment of autonomous weapons, as current legal frameworks contain loopholes that could allow such uses under the guise of "all lawful use." The agreement with OpenAI may lack sufficient safeguards to prevent these outcomes, posing risks to civil liberties and democratic norms.
WTF?
The Department of War can legally buy data from companies like Facebook and use it for surveillance, circumventing traditional legal restrictions.
Now What?
Watch for any legislative or regulatory changes that might address the loopholes in current laws regarding mass surveillance and autonomous weapons. Pay attention to any further disclosures about the specifics of OpenAI's contract with the Department of War and any potential legal challenges that may arise.
Headline: 13 thoughts on Anthropic, OpenAI and the Department of War
What?
On February 2026, the Pentagon reached an agreement with OpenAI after Secretary of War Pete Hegseth designated Anthropic as a supply chain risk, potentially affecting investments from companies like Nvidia, Amazon, and Google. This decision follows a period of rapid advancements in artificial intelligence capabilities, with Anthropic's Claude model being considered a leading AI model.
So What?
This development shifts the balance of power in the AI industry, potentially disadvantaging Anthropic while bolstering OpenAI's position. It also raises questions about the intersection of AI technology and national security, as well as the ethical considerations of AI deployment in military contexts.
WTF?
The surreal appointment of Pete Hegseth as Secretary of War and the sudden news of bombing Iran add a bizarre backdrop to the unfolding AI and military developments.
Now What?
Watch for Anthropic's legal challenge against the government's designation and any potential policy reversals, such as unbanning Claude. Additionally, monitor how this agreement influences AI regulation and the ethical frameworks guiding AI's role in national security.
Culture & Media
Headline: X Is Drowning in Disinformation Following US and Israel’s Attack on Iran
What?
On February 28, 2026, David Gilbert reported for WIRED that following U.S. President Donald Trump's announcement of a joint U.S. and Israeli attack on Iran, disinformation rapidly spread on Elon Musk's social media platform, X. The platform was inundated with misleading posts, including altered images and misattributed videos, some of which were shared by accounts with blue check marks.
So What?
The spread of disinformation on X during major global events like the U.S. and Israeli attack on Iran undermines public understanding and can escalate tensions by spreading false narratives. The platform's failure to effectively manage misleading content raises concerns about its role in shaping public perception and the potential for misinformation to influence geopolitical dynamics.
WTF?
Some posts on X attempted to pass off video game footage as real scenes from the conflict between the U.S., Israel, and Iran.
Now What?
Observers should monitor potential regulatory responses to the spread of disinformation on social media platforms, particularly in the context of international conflicts. Legislative bodies may consider measures to hold platforms accountable for the dissemination of false information. Further developments in this area could impact how social media companies operate during global crises.
Headline: There Is Power in the Word ‘Patriarchy.’ We Need to Start Using It.
What?
On March 1, 2026, Ms. Magazine discusses the pervasive influence of patriarchy in societal structures, highlighting its role in issues like sex binaries, reproductive control, and white Christian nationalism. The article references United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres's 2023 warning about the global backlash against women's rights and critiques policies from the Trump administration that align with patriarchal values.
So What?
The persistence of patriarchal systems poses a significant barrier to gender equality and civil liberties, as evidenced by recent political and legal developments. The article underscores the need to explicitly name and challenge patriarchy to dismantle its influence and advance social justice.
Now What?
Watch for legislative and judicial actions related to reproductive rights and gender equality, particularly in the context of the Supreme Court's 2022 Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization decision. Monitor ongoing political discourse and policy proposals that may either reinforce or challenge patriarchal norms.
What the Right is Reading
Strays
Headline: The Pentagon says it’s ‘lethalitymaxxing’. Why has ‘incel’ slang crossed into the mainstream?
What?
On March 1, 2026, The Guardian reported that the US Department of Defense used the term "lethalitymaxxing" in a tweet to describe the military's capabilities, highlighting the mainstreaming of incel slang. This language, originating from online forums like 4chan, has been adopted by various institutions, including the Trump administration, which has used similar terms like "homelandmaxxing" in official communications.
So What?
The adoption of incel slang by government entities signifies a shift in how language from fringe online communities can influence mainstream discourse, potentially normalizing misogynistic and nihilistic ideologies. This trend raises concerns about the erosion of civil discourse and the impact on democratic norms.
WTF?
Clavicular, a prominent figure in the looksmaxxing community, reportedly uses methamphetamine to reduce appetite and has endorsed hitting one's face with a hammer to enhance attractiveness.
Now What?
Observers should monitor how the use of incel slang in official communications might influence public policy and societal norms. It is crucial to watch for any legislative or regulatory responses addressing the normalization of such language in government discourse.
Headline: 4 Guys Near White House Bragging in Bar About Iran Bombing Hours Before It Started
What?
On February 28, 2026, TMZ reported that attorney Mark Geragos overheard four men at Joe's Seafood, Prime Steak & Stone Crab in Washington D.C., discussing a planned U.S. bombing of Iran hours before it occurred. The men, dressed in business attire, were openly talking about the impending military action near the White House.
So What?
This incident raises significant concerns about operational security and the potential for leaks of sensitive military information. Such breaches could undermine strategic operations and diplomatic relations, highlighting the need for stringent information control measures.
WTF?
One of the men was reportedly singing "Bomb Bomb Bomb, Bomb Bomb Iran" to the tune of The Beach Boys' "Barbara Ann," exemplifying a shocking lack of discretion.
Now What?
Watch for any investigations or policy changes regarding the handling of classified information by government officials and contractors. Legislative or regulatory responses may emerge to address these security lapses.
