ICE Slips on Ice
Tuesday, January 13, 2026
Welcome to The Instrum-Intel Daily, where we break down what you need to know, and why, using What? So What? Now What?.
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Politics • The Trump Administration • Climate • AI & Tech • Culture • Education • What the Right is Reading • Etc.
Politics
Headline: Post-Maduro Venezuela faces instability under new interim leadership | ACLED
What?
Following the U.S.-led 'Operation Absolute Resolve' and the capture of Nicolás Maduro, interim President Delcy Rodríguez faces internal power struggles and a lack of military cohesion.
So What?
The use of unilateral military force to depose a foreign leader sets a precedent that could be turned inward against domestic 'enemies' or used to bypass Congressional war powers.
Now What?
Watch for the administration's 'three-phase plan' to take control of Venezuelan oil assets and whether this leads to a broader regional conflict involving Colombian armed groups.
Headline: Lawfare is not enough: The U.S. needs legal statecraft | Lawfare
What?
Lawfare analysis argues that the U.S. must transition from 'lawfare'—using law as a tactical weapon—to 'legal statecraft,' which integrates legal norms into a broader national grand strategy.
So What?
For those seeking to restrain the administration, this shift signals a move toward using the legal system to permanently entrench executive power rather than just winning individual court cases.
Now What?
Watch for the Department of Justice to propose new legal frameworks that prioritize executive discretion over international treaties and long-standing domestic precedents.
Headline: Dallas megadonor leads right-wing war on 'Housing First' homeless policies | Texas Observer
What?
Billionaire Monty Bennett is pushing a model to relocate the unhoused to isolated 'transformational campuses' while lobbying the Texas legislature to criminalize homeless camping statewide.
So What?
This effort represents a broader right-wing strategy to dismantle social safety nets and replace them with privatized, carceral solutions that strip vulnerable populations of their rights.
Now What?
Watch for other 'red state' governors to adopt Bennett's 'campus' model as a template for clearing urban centers ahead of the 2026 election cycle.
The Trump Administration
They can feel it slipping away
— Panda Bernstein (@j4years.bsky.social) January 13, 2026 at 7:15 AM
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Headline: Leaders alarmed about fairness of FBI inquiry into Minneapolis ICE shooting | Theguardian
What?
In January 2026, Minnesota state and local leaders raised concerns about the fairness and transparency of the FBI-led investigation into the shooting death of Renee Nicole Good by an ICE agent in Minneapolis, after the state bureau of criminal apprehension was denied access to key evidence.
So What?
This situation highlights significant power imbalances and potential obstruction of local accountability in law enforcement investigations, raising civil liberties concerns and presenting critical organizing opportunities for campaigners demanding transparency and justice in cases of state violence.
Now What?
Progressive observers should watch for developments in state versus federal jurisdiction in the investigation, local demands for independent probes, and any forthcoming evidence disclosures, with further context available at The Guardian coverage.
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Headline: ICE agents use banned chokeholds and neck restraints on civilians | ProPublica
What?
A ProPublica investigation found more than 40 cases over the past year where immigration agents used life-threatening maneuvers, including banned chokeholds, on immigrants and U.S. citizens.
So What?
The return of these prohibited tactics signals an escalating use of state violence in the mass deportation campaign, posing a direct threat to the safety of both protesters and bystanders.
Now What?
Watch for more social media footage from local raids and potential lawsuits challenging the Department of Homeland Security's failure to enforce its own use-of-force bans.
🕯️My cousin Brian passed away last night. After a courageous 3 wk stint with ICE. He slipped on a fellow agent’s frozen peepee puddle & somersaulted many times in the air, yelling “yabbada yabbada yabbada” & tragically aspirating (a different) agent’s pee he’d been gargling. He hated women🇺🇸💔
— Rob Delaney (@robdelaney.bsky.social) January 12, 2026 at 4:33 PM
Headline: FBI takes over investigation into fatal ICE shooting of U.S. citizen | New York Times
What?
The FBI is leading the probe into the January 7 killing of Renee Good, a 37-year-old mother and legal observer shot by an ICE agent during a Minneapolis raid.
So What?
This killing of a citizen highlights the extreme risks of 'shoot-first' protocols in urban areas and the administration's aggressive posture toward those who monitor law enforcement.
Now What?
Watch for the release of body-worn camera footage and statements from the Minneapolis Mayor, who has demanded that federal agents end their presence in the city.
Headline: ICE taps into nationwide AI-enabled camera networks via 'side-door' access | 404 Media
What?
Data shows ICE agents conducted thousands of license-plate lookups by asking local police to search private AI-powered camera networks, bypassing the lack of a formal federal contract.
So What?
This use of private surveillance networks allows federal agents to sidestep local sanctuary laws and track the movements of entire communities without public oversight.
Now What?
Watch for cities like Denver and Richmond to further restrict local police from sharing surveillance data with federal immigration authorities.
What?
A neighbor in Chaska, Minn., revealed that Jonathan Ross, the ICE agent who fatally shot Renee Good in Minneapolis on Jan. 7, had previously claimed to be a botanist at a neighborhood party in 2020.
So What?
This matters to progressive campaigners because it highlights the secrecy and deception surrounding federal agents within communities, raising concerns about accountability, civil liberties, and the impact of aggressive ICE tactics near marginalized populations.
Now What?
Watch for ongoing investigations and debates on the use of force by ICE agents, official responses from local and federal leaders, and community organizing efforts reacting to this shooting, with further context available in coverage of Minneapolis policing and immigration enforcement policies.
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Headline: The End Goal of Trump’s Cringey, Nonsensical Videos | The New Republic
What?
Analyzes Trump’s music/video choices as identity-building tactics.
So What?
Explains how spectacle shapes public consent.
Now What?
Expect more aestheticized messaging and moderation tests.
Headline: Trump vetoes land return for Miccosukee Tribe following detention center dispute | Grist
What?
President Trump vetoed a bipartisan bill to return 30 acres of land to the Miccosukee Tribe, explicitly citing the tribe's opposition to a new Everglades detention center.
So What?
The veto demonstrates the administration’s willingness to use tribal land rights as political leverage to force cooperation with its immigration enforcement infrastructure.
Now What?
Watch for legal challenges from the tribe regarding environmental harm in the Everglades and efforts in Congress to override the presidential veto.
Headline: Stephen Miller's influence expands over second-term deportation machine | NPR
What?
NPR reports that White House adviser Stephen Miller is the primary architect behind the administration's rapid-fire executive orders and the logistical planning for mass removals.
So What?
Miller's unchecked power ensures that the administration will prioritize ideological goals over traditional legal procedures, heightening the risk of civil rights violations.
Now What?
Watch for upcoming executive actions targeting birthright citizenship and expanded 'expedited removal' authorities nationwide.
@redheadgemini94 ♬ fuck ice - Chrissa Sparkles
Headline: U.S. Attacked Boat With Aircraft That Looked Like a Civilian Plane | Nytimes
What?
The Pentagon used a secret aircraft painted to resemble a civilian plane to attack a boat involved in drug smuggling in September 2025, killing 11 people, raising legal and ethical questions about the use of perfidy in armed conflict.
So What?
This raises critical concerns about potential war crimes and the erosion of legal and ethical standards in U.S. military operations, highlighting issues of transparency, accountability, and the misuse of power that progressive communicators and campaigners must critique and challenge.
Now What?
Watch for developments in congressional oversight, possible legal inquiries into war crime allegations, and ongoing debates over the Trump administration’s use of military force against drug cartels, with further context available from law-of-war experts and military legal analyses referenced in the article.
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AI
Headline: AI ruined job applications, so people are resorting to dating apps to find work | Gizmodo
What?
Gizmodo reports that job seekers are increasingly turning to dating apps like Tinder and Bumble to network and find employment opportunities, as AI-powered applicant tracking systems have made traditional job applications nearly impossible to navigate successfully.
So What?
The breakdown of formal hiring systems forces workers into informal networking channels that advantage those with existing social capital, deepening employment inequities and signaling that AI automation has made traditional job markets less accessible rather than more efficient.
Now What?
Watch for regulatory proposals addressing AI discrimination in hiring, labor advocacy campaigns demanding transparency in applicant tracking systems, and further reporting on alternative job-seeking strategies.
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Headline: You have only X years to escape permanent stagnation | Astral Codex Ten
What?
Astral Codex Ten argues that individuals and societies have a narrow window to achieve meaningful progress before AI automation locks in current economic and social hierarchies, creating permanent stratification between those who positioned themselves advantageously before AGI and those who didn't.
So What?
This accelerationist framing of AI transition risks justifying inequality as inevitable while obscuring policy choices that could shape more equitable outcomes, making it important for progressive communicators to counter narratives that present dystopian futures as predetermined rather than politically contested.
Now What?
Watch for similar accelerationist narratives in tech discourse, policy debates over AI wealth redistribution mechanisms, and progressive counter-narratives emphasizing collective action over individual positioning.
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Headline: Kawasaki robot horse enters production | Futurism
What?
Futurism reports that Kawasaki has begun production of its four-legged robot Bex, a mechanical horse designed for industrial applications including transportation, surveillance, and potentially military use.
So What?
The commercialization of quadrupedal robots raises concerns about autonomous surveillance systems and militarized robotics entering civilian spaces, with implications for privacy rights, labor displacement in logistics, and the normalization of robotic enforcement infrastructure.
Now What?
Watch for deployment announcements in specific industries or municipalities, regulatory responses to mobile surveillance robots, and advocacy campaigns addressing robotic policing concerns.
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Headline: Mark Zuckerberg names Dina Powell McCormick as Meta president | The Hollywood Reporter
What?
The Hollywood Reporter reports that Meta has appointed Dina Powell McCormick, a former Trump administration official and Goldman Sachs executive, as president, signaling a strategic shift toward corporate-government relations and conservative alliance-building.
So What?
McCormick's appointment reflects Meta's rightward pivot under Trump's second term, suggesting the platform may further deprioritize content moderation and progressive advocacy while strengthening ties to Republican power structures—a development with direct implications for digital organizing infrastructure.
Now What?
Watch for Meta policy changes on political content and fact-checking, McCormick's role in government relations as regulatory scrutiny increases, and progressive migration to alternative platforms.
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Climate & Environment
What?
President Trump announced the U.S. will withdraw from the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and 65 other international bodies, claiming they no longer serve American interests.
So What?
Exiting the Senate-ratified UNFCCC isolates the U.S. from global climate negotiations and science, potentially allowing other major emitters to 'free-ride' and stalling the global energy transition.
Now What?
Watch for legal challenges regarding whether a president can unilaterally withdraw from a Senate-ratified treaty and how states like California will step in to represent U.S. climate interests abroad.
Headline: Trump administration backs plan to restart idled oil rigs off California coast | CBS News
What?
The administration issued an emergency waiver to bypass safety regulations and restart three oil platforms near Santa Barbara that were shut down following a major 2015 pipeline spill.
So What?
This move prioritizes fossil fuel production over environmental safety and state sovereignty, overriding California's strict coastal protections during a declared 'national energy emergency.'
Now What?
Watch for a pivotal Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals hearing in February as environmental groups seek to block the restart based on the risk of another catastrophic spill.
Headline: Wildfires destroy 50,000 acres in Argentina's Patagonia amid historic drought | UPI
What?
Massive wildfires in southern Argentina have forced the evacuation of 3,000 people and destroyed native forests in protected areas like Los Alerces National Park.
So What?
The scale of the destruction, fueled by the worst drought since 1965, underscores the accelerating regional impacts of the climate crisis and the vulnerability of global carbon sinks.
Now What?
Watch for the results of arson investigations and potential calls for international aid as firefighting resources in South America are stretched to their limits.
Culture
Headline: A MF MONSTER | John Paul Brammer (Substack)
What?
A Barb in recovery parses the “MAGA Minaj” discourse and stan-politics overlap.
So What?
Fandoms function as political vectors and narrative engines.
Now What?
Expect more celebrity–politics crossovers and moderation fights.
Headline: Jenny Lewis Celebrated Her 50th Birthday by Marrying Her Dog | Rolling Stone
What?
A tongue-in-cheek 'wedding' to her dog Bobby Rhubarb marked her 50th.
So What?
A case study in attention-economy fan engagement.
Now What?
Look for follow-on merch or tour content.
What?
Decades-long search for a stolen Pollock, told through the Isaacs family.
So What?
Rule-of-law and market-integrity stakes in the art world.
Now What?
Potential leads, audits, and agency updates to watch.
What the Right is Reading
Headline: The Supreme Court should end climate lawfare once and for all | The Hill
What?
An opinion piece argues the Supreme Court must stop local governments from using state courts to sue energy companies for climate change damages, labeling the practice "climate lawfare."
So What?
By framing climate litigation as "lawfare," the right seeks to shield corporations from legal accountability and centralize environmental authority within a federal executive branch that currently opposes climate action.
Now What?
Watch for the Supreme Court's decision on Suncor Energy v. Boulder County, which could set a precedent that permanently bars states and cities from using tort law to address environmental harms.
Fascist Christian nationalist pastor Joel Webbon tells Trump to "arrest Tim Walz, bring him to DC, try him and hang him. Honor Christ. Save The Country."
— Right Wing Watch (@rightwingwatch.bsky.social) January 9, 2026 at 3:02 PM
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Headline: DHS Reports Sharp Rise in Vehicular and Physical Attacks on ICE Officers | Ground
What?
The Department of Homeland Security reported a recent dramatic increase in assaults, vehicular attacks, and death threats against U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement officers during enforcement operations in cities including Minneapolis, Portland, and Los Angeles.
So What?
This surge in violence against ICE officers highlights intensified conflict over immigration enforcement policies, raising concerns about community safety, law enforcement accountability, and the potential for politicized narratives around civil resistance and state power.
Now What?
Progressive observers should watch for upcoming legal challenges to ICE enforcement actions, community responses to public safety claims, and analysis of how these incidents influence immigration policy debates, with further context available from DHS reports and regional news coverage.
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Headline: How stalkers outsource abuse to private investigators | The Guardian
What?
The Guardian reports on how stalkers are increasingly hiring private investigators to track, surveil, and gather information on their victims, effectively outsourcing their abusive behavior while maintaining plausible deniability.
So What?
This emerging stalking tactic exploits a legal gray area where licensed private investigators conduct surveillance that enables domestic abuse, creating accountability challenges for law enforcement and highlighting gaps in victim protection frameworks that progressive advocates should address.
Now What?
Watch for legislative proposals regulating private investigator conduct in domestic abuse cases, law enforcement guidance on prosecuting proxy stalking, and victim advocacy organizations calling for stricter licensing requirements.
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Duffer Brothers had a Reddit tab open while writing the Stranger Things 5 ending. pic.twitter.com/DBJKprY3Ad
— Stranger Things Memes (@SThingsMeme) January 12, 2026
