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What the Midterms Mean for the AI Data Center Resistance Movement (And What to Do Now)

Nov 4

Written by Travis Nichols

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What? • So What? • Now What?

In October, The Economist reported that voters living near AI data centers were shifting toward Democrats faster than other voters.

Among people who voted for Trump in 2024, 17% of those living within 1.2 miles of an AI data center said they planned to vote Democratic in 2026, compared with 6% elsewhere.

Nate Silver discussed the findings on The Ezra Klein Show and suggested testing whether the pattern appeared in the midterm results.

And so here we are.

This morning, the three districts The Economist picked out as possible examples of a trend — Nevada's 2nd, Colorado's 4th and Ohio's 15th — appear to have swung substantially toward Democrats compared with 2024, with the Democrat winning in Ohio, and the Democrats leading in Nevada and Colorado, as of Wednesday morning.

Beyond the 15th district, voters in Ohio

approved restrictions in municipalities across the state, and across multiple races. It’s probably the strongest immediate signal that AI data center opposition and winning elections are meaningfully correlated. In Pataskala, for example, 73.6% supported restrictions, in Granville, 82.4%, and in Trenton, about 79%.

Comparing the Republican vote in those communities with nearby towns would help determine whether opposition to AI data centers also translated into opposition to Republican candidates, but that's beyond my powers this morning.

Ohio's Senate race is another useful case.

OG Democrat Sherrod Brown defeated Republican Jon Husted after making Husted's support for AI data centers a central campaign issue. Brown criticized AI data center tax incentives and the costs that new facilities could impose on electricity customers.

Husted, on the other hand, defended the economic benefits of AI data center development, and was mealy-mouthed about what he would do about them in office.

Georgia, Texas, and Michigan also showed examples of AI data center resistance outperforming past Democratic results.

The most useful finding would, of course, be a consistent pattern across several states, which is what Nate Silver was proposing someone look into after the midterms.

Republicans losing more ground near AI data centers than elsewhere, even after accounting for the national Democratic swing. But until we get that kind of analysis, we can look at what was directly on the ballot.

Ballotpedia identified 41 data center-related measures scheduled for Nov. 3, part of at least 50 measures across 13 states during 2026.

The early results strongly favor restrictions, with consistent opposition across state lines.

Voters considered restrictions or development-related proposals in California, Florida, Illinois, Kansas, Maine, New Jersey, Ohio, and Wisconsin.

Many of the confirmed Ohio measures received support from more than 70% of voters, and Granville exceeded 80%, despite massive spending by technology companies and business groups to defeat them.

The opposition extended beyond outright bans. Ballotpedia's list includes proposals for moratoriums, restrictions on construction and operation, and additional requirements for development.

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Unless we get data that pushes hard against The Economist’s hypothesis, the midterm results show that AI data center resistance is one of the core issues breaking up the MAGA coalition.

The Economist argued that Trump’s push for AI data center development wasn’t winning over his own supporters, building on what we learned last year, when Democrats used anger over utility bills to win governor’s races in New Jersey and Virginia, and to unseat two Republicans on Georgia’s utility commission.

For progressives, one big lesson is that local fights over power bills, pollution, and development disclosures turn out voters, from Iowa to Maine to California and back again.

Candidates who ignore it, or waffle, will pay for it.

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We already have hordes of analysts theorizing (and promoting their own preconceived ideas of) why voters are resisting AI data centers in droves, and the attempt to triangulate, dilute, or co-opt the grassroots resistance is likely where this thing goes sideways. Rahm Emanuel and James Carville saying Democrats can only win by supporting AI data centers, or some such nonsense.

That’s the main “crisitunity” I’d monitor on the macro level, but closer in, here are three things to watch

Precinct-level returns near AI data centers. Look for county and precinct comparisons, especially in Ohio’s Senate race.

A final ballot measure count. Pre-election tallies ranged from 34 to 49 measures. Ballotpedia will have a post-election count, and it will be good to track which results are binding versus advisory.

Fallout after the vote. Ballotpedia tracked 42 recall efforts targeting 79 officials this year, and a statewide Ohio measure is aiming for 2027. Watch for recalls, lawsuits, and industry pushback.