Remember Remember the Third of November
October 30, 2026
It's clear Trump and his allies want to keep control of Congress, regardless of whether they win the elections on Tuesday.
Sending ICE to the polls on Tuesday would be just one part of an overall plan that will most likely look (and already does look) something like this:
Phase One: Preemptively sow doubt about the elections through waves of disinformation and spurious legal actions.
Phase Two: Disrupt Election Day with voter intimidation at polling places and widespread claims of “fraud.”
Phase Three: Seize election materials, delay certification of results.
Phase Four: Keep Democrats from being seated when the new Congress opens on Jan. 3, 2027.
No single step would decide the outcome. The danger is the total effect of the distributed subversion, and how we as a collective respond.
Jump to Section:
What?
Phase 1: Doubt
Trump has been muddying the waters about elections for years, and all that work gives him permission in his supporters' minds to take extraordinary actions to subvert democracy. He's doing that in a few key ways now.
On Oct. 22, Trump said he directed the Justice Department to try to block Alaska from certifying its Senate election results if Democrat Mary Peltola narrowly beats Trump's favored candidate, Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan. This week, the NYT reported Democratic operatives and Peltola campaign aides had worked to get the second Sullivan on the ballot. They found no evidence of illegal activity, and both parties do this kind of "ballot-stacking," but the DOJ giddily issued a flurry of subpoenas after the story dropped.
The DoJ’s suit argues voters could confuse the senator with a different Republican on the ballot, who happens to be named Daniel J. Sullivan.
The Justice Department also sued California to keep state election officials from counting more than 20,000 ballots it says may belong to noncitizens, and last week asked Washington state to set aside about 400 ballots it says may belong to noncitizens. In a separate department letter to Washington officials, fretted about the integrity of the "voter roles."
Legal experts expect a court to dismiss the Alaska suit, and a federal judge this week rejected the DoJ request in California, writing that it "would wreak havoc and disrupt the election that is already underway." Which is of course the point.
Phase 2: Election Day
Earlier this month, Trump offered a $1 million reward to anyone who reports voter fraud that leads to an arrest and conviction, though, of course, he didn't say who would pay or how the program would work. Separately, the Justice Department launched a whistleblower program that pays $10,000 to $30,000 for fraud tips submitted through fraud.gov that lead to criminal charges.
And U.S. attorney's offices are directing people to report suspected election fraud through the FBI's online tips portal.
Trump would love to use this weaponized, crowdsourced paranoia to justify whatever he decides to do, such as Bannon's dream of sending ICE to polling places, and it's not hard to see how a cash bounty for fraud reports, with no rules attached, could generate just enough "specific threats" to justify sending agents, and just enough polling place chaos to reinforce Trump's narrative.
The RNC says it has deployed field staff and hired state directors and election integrity directors in at least 17 states. These "election watchers" are supposed to observe check-in and counting, report suspected problems to party lawyers, and in some states challenge voters.
But in 2022, some right-wing watchers felt the rules didn't apply to them, and they photographed sensitive voting equipment, intimidated voters, or shouted at voters from just outside polling place buffer zones.
Over the summer, Bannon encouraged people at the “Fraud Fighter Summit” to be unofficial Election Day watchdogs, armed or not, depending on state law and personal preference.
What these watchers and election integrity activists will report, true or not, will contribute to the crowdsourced weaponized paranoia that will spread unchecked online next week and beyond to further the grievance narrative and justify autocratic actions.
Old videos of supposed vote-flipping machines are already circulating as false proof of 2026 fraud. And just as viral claims about USAID "waste" helped justify gutting the agency, enough online smoke will be justification for the Trump administration to fire.
To counter this, a coalition of Democratic state parties say they’re recruiting at least 10,000 watchers, and anti-ICE activists are training people to monitor polls, all of which could, paradoxically, provide further excuse for federal intervention.
Phase 3: Seizure
Trump has explicitly said he should have directed the National Guard to seize voting machines in 2020, and in Votebeat's October survey, 18 of 31 experts said it was at least somewhat likely he would ask federal agents to seize election materials after this election.
His administration has already done it once. On Jan. 28, the FBI took more than 650 boxes of Fulton County's 2020 ballots under a search warrant, and a federal judge let the FBI keep them, even though no charges have been filed.
This week, MS NOW reported FBI agents fear they'll be ordered to seize voting machines on Election Day, and some say they're prepared to refuse, even if it means being fired.
These agents are right to be worried about this phase because seizing election materials disrupts the record of who handled each ballot and where it went. That alone could be used to cast doubt on the results, which is as much of the point as actually proving any wrongdoing.
Seizing machines or election management systems mid-count could also effectively shut down an election in a key county, and if the materials are gone, the county loses the originals it needs for public records requests and lawsuits, a situation conspiracy theorists would love.
A Newsweek analysis identified 100 counties at the center of the fight for Congress, including Scott and Dallas counties in Iowa and Douglas County, Neb., home to Omaha.
The counties that matter most sit in competitive House districts inside Senate battleground states, making a few target counties essential for the overall control of Congress.
If we manage to get results, there's then certification, which they’ll also try to disrupt. If a county board refuses to certify, the state can't finish its statewide count. If the state can't certify, no certificate of election goes to Congress, the winner can't be added to the list of new members, and the seat could sit empty when Congress opens.
In 2021, a New York House seat stayed vacant for more than a month during a court fight. Empty seats change the math on which party holds a majority, and could keep a new majority from electing a speaker, having a majority, and, perhaps most importantly, getting subpoena power over the Jared Kushners of the MAGA World.
State officials say local boards can't block certification forever, but delays could cascade.
Rolling Stone counted nearly 70 election-skeptic county officials in six swing states in 2024, at least 20 of whom had refused or delayed certification in the past.
Bannon and other members of the Ku Klux Klausowitz brigade have also called for states to take over county election boards. In Georgia, a 2021 law lets the State Election Board replace a county board after a state investigation of how the county runs its elections.
This "performance review" can start when two state House members and two state senators from the county request it. So all it takes is four MAGA true believers in, say, Fayette County to disrupt the peaceful transfer of power.
North Carolina moved the power to appoint election boards from the governor to the Republican state auditor, Dave Boliek. The state board and all 100 county boards flipped to Republican majorities, and an appeals court upheld the law in September. Which could be bad news for Roy Cooper, who the Democrats need to win if they want to take back the Senate.
Phase 4: Jan. 3
Both chambers of the new Congress convene at noon on Jan. 3. Neither has a Jan. 6-style joint session, but there are still vulnerabilities, particularly gaps in the official lists of who won and the process for deciding whom to seat.
In the House, the clerk presides over the chamber in the transition period between the old and new speaker. The clerk uses state certificates to build the list of members-elect, who then vote for the new speaker.
Most experts see this as bookkeeping, but some worry Speaker Mike Johnson could pressure the current clerk, Kevin McCumber, or replace him with someone who leaves Democrats off the list.
Rep. Jim Himes, the top Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee, said McCumber understands the job is purely procedural, and that Democrats would treat any move by Johnson to fire him in the days before the new House is seated as a "break glass" moment.
For whatever that's worth.
A member-elect missing from the roll can't vote on opening day, including for speaker. Members-elect can appeal the clerk's rulings or ask to add someone by unanimous consent, and the House can vote to authorize the oath.
But if enough Democrats were left off, the members on the roll could vote down those appeals. Many election law experts expect the fight would then move quickly to court.
Again, for what that's worth.
I, for one, can't imagine John Roberts on Jan. 3, wielding a baseball bat on the Capitol steps to fend off the angry mob of MAGA landed gentry with zip ties dangling from their cross body bags. So I'm not sure how much good the fact that these actions are "illegal" will do us when push literally comes to shove.
The U.S. Marshals, who enforce federal court orders, answer to Trump's Justice Department. So does the FBI. Whether a court can make federal agents obey an order against their own boss is TBD.
Right now, Republicans hold a narrow House majority, and Johnson can lose only about two votes on a party-line vote. Permanently replacing the clerk before Jan. 3 would need nearly every Republican, including Rep. Don Bacon, who is co-leading a pledge to seat every state-certified winner. After noon on Jan. 3 the old House no longer exists, and the vote passes to the members-elect on the clerk's list.
After a speaker is elected, any member-elect can object to swearing in another. Back in 2021, Rep. Chip Roy objected to 67 members-elect, but the House voted overwhelmingly to seat them. anyway. A losing candidate also has 30 days after the result is declared to file a contest. Members with certificates are usually seated while contests are investigated.
The last time the House refused on day one to seat a certified winner was 1985, when it left an Indiana seat vacant for four months. Democrats, who already held a large majority, cited problems with vote counting and certification. A Democratic-led task force ran its own recount and found the Democrat had won by four votes, and the House seated him.
In the Senate, things are a bit weirder.
The current Senate has 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats, and two independents who vote with Democrats. Only a third of seats are on the ballot, so most of the current crop of senators will carry over into the next Congress. Vice President JD Vance, the president of the Senate, breaks 50-50 ties, so Democrats need a net gain of four seats for a majority.
States will send Senate certificates to Vance, and the secretary of the Senate will compile them. Unlike the House, though no federal law governs that list, and Senate rules don't say whether, or on what grounds, the vice president or secretary could reject a certificate.
If it's close, Vance could be the ultimate arbiter, which is not a comfort.
Disputed senators are usually seated "without prejudice" while the Rules Committee investigates, as with Sen. Mary Landrieu in 1997, but seats have also been left empty: Al Franken waited more than eight months after his 2008 election, and in 1975 the Senate declared a New Hampshire seat vacant and sent it back to voters.
If the Vance news isn't comforting, you won't feel any better knowing that the current Rules and Administration Committee is led by Mitch McConnell.
If county boards refuse to certify results, state officials can go to court to force them to, as they did in New Mexico and Arizona in 2022, and, after some legal wrangling, in Nevada in 2024.
Secretaries of state, attorneys general, and local prosecutors in both parties are running drills and coordinating with election offices, including Utah's Republican lieutenant governor.
State law treats certification as mandatory, and state officials can compel holdouts, though see above about how exactly this compulsion could or could not be carried out.
Gen. Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs, said in August the military had no plans to send troops to polls or seize election materials. But that pledge covers federal troops and federalized Guard members, not Guard units under governors' control, and Ken Klippenstein reported that Guard units in at least seven states have publicly acknowledged some role in election security this year.
Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin has said ICE won't patrol polling places.
"The only reason why my officers would be there is if there was a specific threat for them to be there," he told senators.
Which does not give me much comfort.
So What?
Two days after Election Day here in the U.S., it will be Guy Fawkes day and Bonfire Night in the U.K.
This is when the British commemorate an unsuccessful plot to blow up parliament in 1605.
Just to say it again: They’re celebrating a coup that failed. Parliament literally passed a law making it an annual day of thanksgiving for the king’s survival.
It’s as if here in the U.S. started celebrating January 6th every year. It too was a shambolic plot to overthrow the government that failed.
If we looked at MAGA’s sedition this way, then maybe instead of a sitting president engorging himself on emoluments, Trump would be a harmless object of folk derision, his likeness burned in effigy every year, or, at worst a folk hero to a raging cadre of late middle aged tax dodgers who would grow increasingly impotent over the years until they finally sputtered out into oblivion. Meanwhile, the thanksgiving would go on every year.
Instead, here we are, having to game out how exactly Trump and his minions will try, once again, to end representative government in the United States.
Now What?
This guidance draws on resources from:
Election Protection coalition
What to Do at The Polls
If you see something off, don't confront anyone. Tell poll workers first. Election officials have authority to keep order at polling places, so they can address problems on the spot and bring in county election officials.
Call 911 only in a real emergency, since a police presence can itself intimidate voters.
No matter what happens with the poll workers, call the nonpartisan Election Protection hotline: 866-OUR-VOTE (866-687-8683). Spanish speakers can call 888-VE-Y-VOTA, and Asian-language speakers can call 888-API-VOTE.
After that, leave the polling place and document what happened. Note the date, time, and location, then report what you saw to your county board of elections and the county district attorney.
Know who can question you. In California, for example, only poll workers can challenge a voter's eligibility, and anyone else doing it should be reported. Rules vary by state.
What to Do After the Polls Close
Watch certification. County canvass and certification meetings are open to the public, and many allow public comment.
Groups such as All Voting is Local recruit volunteers to attend, take notes, and report back.
Don't share nonsense, even if it's nonsense that favors your point of view. Old videos of supposed vote-flipping machines are already circulating as false proof of 2026 fraud, and anything that muddies the waters further helps Trump.
Call your members of Congress. Ask whether they'll sign the pledge to seat every state-certified winner. Only 17 had signed as of Oct. 27.
On January 3
The "Hold the Line" guide, written in 2020, explains how to start a local election protection group.
The group Freedom Trainers is promoting a six-part "People's Election Playbook" for 2026.
Know the playbook you're up against. Protect Democracy calls the 2026 subversion strategy "deceive, disrupt, deny": undermine trust in elections, disrupt how they run, then use the chaos to reject results.
Godspeed!
NB: All typos are the result of Chinese voting technology
